# Five-Year Investor Projections — Phase 1A Capital Partners

**Effective:** May 30, 2026 · **Not an offer** · **Not guaranteed**

**Round:** **Mirage District Phase 1A Partnership Pool** — **$1,000,000** total raise  
**Security:** **12% Class A** membership interest in Mirage District **Operating LLC** (88% retained by ownership)  
**Land:** Held outside OpCo (lease/management from holding entity) — not included in pool valuation

**Implied post-money (math only):** $1M ÷ 12% ≈ **$8.33M** operating company value at close

**Public summary:** [investors.html#roi](../investors.html#roi)

---

## Return on investment — line by line (base case · illustrative)

| Step | Class A (12%) amount |
|------|----------------------|
| **Investment** | **($1,000,000)** |
| Year 1 distribution* | $115,000 |
| Year 2 distribution* | $140,000 |
| Year 3 distribution* | $221,000 |
| Year 4 distribution* | $259,000 |
| Year 5 distribution* | $302,000 |
| **Cumulative distributions** | **$1,037,000** |
| Year 5 exit @ **4.5×** on $6.3M op profit** | $3,402,000 |
| **Total return** | **$4,439,000** |
| **Net gain** | **$3,439,000** |
| **MOIC** | **4.44×** |
| **IRR (5-yr hold)** | **~38%** |

\*30% of op profit distributed Y1–2, 40% Y3–5; Class A receives 12% of each payout.  
\**Exit multiple illustrative; refi/partial sale changes outcome.

### Downside ROI (same terms · planning only)

| Metric | Downside |
|--------|----------|
| 5-yr distributions* | ~$264,000 |
| Exit @ 4× Y5 profit ($2.4M) | ~$1,152,000 |
| **Total return** | **~$1,416,000** |
| **MOIC** | **~1.4×** |

\*25% payout ratio on profit all five years.

---

## What to call the investor pool (use consistently)

| Context | Name |
|---------|------|
| **Marketing / deck** | **Phase 1A Capital Partners** |
| **Legal / LLC** | **Class A Members** (Mirage District Operating LLC) |
| **Round** | **Phase 1A Partnership Pool** — **$1,000,000** allocation |
| **Email** | “Phase 1A pool” or “Capital Partners group” |

One lead hedge fund + approved co-investors may fill the **$1M** pro-rata; counsel sets minimum check (e.g. **$250K**).

---

## Base case — five-year platform model (Doc 44 anchor + phased growth)

**Year 1** is anchored to Doc 44 (~$8.1M revenue · ~$3.2M operating profit). **Years 2–5** assume: Phase 1B reinvestment from Y1 cash, Mirage Digital scale, reception calendar maturity, Michoud capture improvement, Phase 2 enclosed wing **Year 3–4** per Doc 59 (SBA path — **not** additional pool cash).

| Year | Revenue | Operating profit | What’s driving it |
|------|---------|------------------|-------------------|
| **1** | **$8.1M** | **$3.2M** | Michoud lunch · 8 chef windows · hall · Pour · events · digital ramp H2 |
| **2** | **$9.6M** | **$3.9M** | Phase 1B complete · 8 digital brands · stronger catering cadence |
| **3** | **$11.2M** | **$4.6M** | Phase 2 wing partial · Bayou Phoenix weekend lift · rent escalators |
| **4** | **$12.8M** | **$5.4M** | Fuller event calendar · OS parking-scale · vendor row mature |
| **5** | **$14.5M** | **$6.3M** | Phase 2 operational · platform economics at scale |

**Cumulative 5-year revenue (base):** **~$56.2M**  
**Cumulative 5-year operating profit (base):** **~$23.4M**

---

## Planning downside — same structure, honest haircut

| Year | Revenue | Operating profit |
|------|---------|------------------|
| **1** | **$5.0M** | **$1.1M** |
| **2** | **$5.8M** | **$1.4M** |
| **3** | **$6.8M** | **$1.8M** |
| **4** | **$7.5M** | **$2.1M** |
| **5** | **$8.2M** | **$2.4M** |

Uses ~10–15% Michoud capture, partial vendor fill, ~50% event calendar — aligned with [CAPITAL-RECONCILIATION-REV95.md](./CAPITAL-RECONCILIATION-REV95.md).

---

## 12% Class A — economic share of operating profit

| Year | Base op profit | **12% economic share** |
|------|----------------|-------------------------|
| 1 | $3.2M | **$384K** |
| 2 | $3.9M | **$468K** |
| 3 | $4.6M | **$552K** |
| 4 | $5.4M | **$648K** |
| 5 | $6.3M | **$756K** |
| **5-yr total** | **$23.4M** | **~$2.81M** |

---

## Illustrative cash to Class A (distribution policy — not guaranteed)

**Assumption (LLC policy TBD):** distribute **30%** of operating profit Years 1–2, **40%** Years 3–5; balance reinvested (Phase 1B, reserves, Phase 2 equity from operations + SBA).

| Year | Base op profit | Pool distribution % | **12% member cash (illustrative)** | **Cumulative cash** |
|------|----------------|---------------------|-----------------------------------|---------------------|
| 1 | $3.2M | 30% | **$115K** | $115K |
| 2 | $3.9M | 30% | **$140K** | $255K |
| 3 | $4.6M | 40% | **$221K** | $476K |
| 4 | $5.4M | 40% | **$259K** | $735K |
| 5 | $6.3M | 40% | **$302K** | **$1.04M** |

**~$1M cumulative distributions over 5 years** on a **$1M** check — before any exit/refi.

---

## Exit / refi illustration (Year 5 — sensitivity only)

If OpCo is valued at **4.5×** Year 5 operating profit (**$6.3M**):

| Multiple | Enterprise value | **12% interest** |
|----------|------------------|------------------|
| 4.0× | $25.2M | **$3.02M** |
| 4.5× | $28.4M | **$3.40M** |
| 5.0× | $31.5M | **$3.78M** |

**Illustrative 5-year outcome (base + 4.5× exit):**  
~**$1.04M** cumulative distributions + ~**$3.4M** exit = **~$4.4M** total · **~4.4× MOIC** on $1M — **not promised**.

**Simple IRR band (illustrative):** ~**35–45%** if base operations and 4.5× exit occur — highly sensitive to timing, refi instead of sale, and downside case.

---

## Tranche wiring (recommended)

| Tranche | Amount | When | % of pool |
|---------|--------|------|-----------|
| T1 | **$400,000** | Term sheet + permits in + CRE term sheet | 40% of pool |
| T2 | **$600,000** | CO + 60 days operations | 60% of pool |

Full **12%** vests at final close of **$1M**.

---

## Disclosures

- Projections are **forward-looking** and **not guarantees**.
- No NASA/Michoud catering contract in diligence as of May 2026.
- Revenue model lunch anchor: **3,500** workers; marketing: **8,000+** addressable.
- Investor should consult counsel and CPA before subscribing.

**Public summary:** [investors.html](../investors.html#five-year) · **Stack:** [CAPITAL-RECONCILIATION-REV95.md](./CAPITAL-RECONCILIATION-REV95.md)